Moon vs Kalshi: two ways to bet on the future
Both cap your downside at what you put in. Beyond that they are different species. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange where you trade yes/no contracts that settle on real-world outcomes. Moon is an offshore betting-style platform where you take leveraged Up/Down wagers on live prices, with bust mechanics. Neither replaces the other — the table first, then who each is actually for.
| Feature | MoonCode: airdrop | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Anjouan (Comoros) gaming licence — Moon International Limited | CFTC-regulated US exchange (designated contract market) |
| Instrument | Up/Down price wagers with leverage | Event contracts — yes/no on outcomes, priced 1¢–99¢, settle at $1 or $0 |
| Leverage | 1× to 1000× | None — every position fully funded |
| Max possible loss | Your wager — no margin calls, no ADL | What you paid for the contracts |
| Markets | Crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, forex — price direction | Sports, politics, economics, crypto, weather, culture — event outcomes |
| Hours | 24/7 incl. nights & weekends | Electronic, effectively round the clock; each contract has a fixed close |
| Fees | 1% of wager on open + dynamic 8h rolling fee + min. 10% of profit on wins | Taker ≈ 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract — peaks ~1.75¢ at 50¢; settlement free (Jul 2026) |
| Deposits | Crypto only; KYC before deposit | USD — ACH free, card deposits up to 2%; crypto supported (Jul 2026) |
| Who can use it | Open beta — registration open now, KYC required | US residents 18+; international access exists but many countries are excluded (Aug 2026) |
Kalshi figures from Kalshi's published fee schedule (updated July 2026) and help docs; Moon figures from Moon's fee documentation, July 2026. Both subject to change — verify on each platform. Neither column is advice — different instruments for different intents. Kalshi's taker multiplier runs higher than 0.07 on some categories (crypto markets among them), and maker fees — roughly a quarter of taker — apply only on series where they're enabled. Kalshi's excluded-country list is long (much of Europe, Canada and Australia among them); check their eligibility page. Moon's rolling-fee rate is dynamic and unpublished — the full Moon schedule is on the fees page.
Settles on an outcome vs rides a price
A Kalshi contract is a claim about the world — a rate cut, a game, a temperature — bought at a price that reads as a probability. The path there is irrelevant: a contract can look hopeless for weeks and still settle at $1, and nothing that happens in between can take more than you paid. A Moon wager is a claim about a price path. Leverage multiplies exposure, and at 1000× a roughly 0.1% adverse move busts the bet — touch the bust price and it's over, even if the market recovers a minute later. Both cap the downside at your stake; the geometry differs. Kalshi's risk resolves once, at settlement. Moon's risk lives in every tick. Fee logic follows the same split: Kalshi charges cents per contract, peaking on 50¢ coin-flips; Moon charges 1% of the wager plus a rolling fee and a cut of wins.
The regulated exchange, stated plainly
Kalshi is a legitimate, federally regulated exchange — a CFTC designated contract market, legal for US residents at 18+, with USD rails and free ACH in and out. Fees are measured in cents, there is no leverage to blow you up, and your worst case is fixed the moment you trade. If you're in the US and want defined-risk exposure to events — elections, rates, sports outcomes — Kalshi is the obvious tool, and nothing on Moon substitutes for it. Moon's Anjouan gaming licence is a materially lighter regulatory footing, and we've said the same when comparing Moon against Bybit and Binance.
Leverage, live prices, one click, all hours
Moon is built for continuous price action, not discrete outcomes. Up to 1000× leverage against Kalshi's none; wagers on crypto, stocks, indices, commodities and forex 24/7 including weekends, against an event catalogue where each contract waits on its close; and a one-click Up/Down ticket against a bid/ask book of yes/no prices. Deposits are crypto-only, which cuts both ways — instant if you hold crypto, a wall if you don't. The honest counterweights: the offshore licence above, a minimum 10% performance fee on winning bets, and a rolling fee whose rate Moon hasn't published. The full flow, from registration and KYC to bust mechanics, is on how Moon works.
Different questions. Pick the one you're answering.
Will the Fed cut? That's Kalshi. Will BTC be higher in an hour? That's Moon — in open beta now, launch promos TBA. Code airdrop costs nothing extra; all nine codes are on the promo code page.